LAunch Weather Transcript

0:00
hello and welcome to the goes-t virtual
0:02
social i'm kate ramsay with nasa and
0:04
we're here at kennedy space center to
0:06
talk about the goes-t launch now goes-t
0:09
is the latest in noaa series of weather
0:12
observing satellites
0:14
and goes see series you can see the
0:16
entire western hemisphere
0:18
from near the arctic circle to near the
0:20
antarctic circle from new zealand to the
0:22
coast of africa
0:24
but i'm here today talking to someone
0:26
who's looking at a little bit more
0:28
focused area when it comes to weather
0:31
jessica williams with the space launch
0:34
delta 45 and space force uh weather
0:37
officer thanks for being here today
0:39
thanks for having me kate excellent and
0:41
so the big question on everybody's mind
0:44
what is the weather looking like for
0:46
tuesday and scheduled lunch then well
0:49
unfortunately we've had this beautiful
0:51
weather week that comes to an end
0:53
starting on monday so the weather
0:54
doesn't look great but it doesn't look
0:56
terrible either the front moves through
0:59
monday but it lingers just to our south
1:00
on tuesday so we do have an enhanced
1:04
risk of showers moving onshore which
1:06
could cause violations for our cumulus
1:08
cloud role and surface electric fields
1:09
rule right now we have 40 chance of
1:12
violating for those rules during that
1:14
two-hour window or 60 chance that
1:16
weather will remain go for that whole
1:18
window okay and that was one of my
1:20
questions is is what is it about the
1:22
forecast that
1:24
gives you a go or
1:26
no go for for uh for the launch good
1:29
question so we evaluate 10 lightning
1:32
launch commit criteria for range safety
1:34
purposes and those are to prevent the
1:36
rocket from triggering lightning or to
1:39
prevent natural lightning from hitting
1:41
the rocket and those are what would
1:43
cause us to become go or no go on the
1:45
range for weather yeah
1:47
um are you using the phrase goes or no
1:50
goes
1:51
for this launch or that's just me all
1:53
right
1:54
we'll probably try to stick to no go and
1:56
go to avoid any confusion but we might
1:58
consider that all right
1:59
but you could have that one um so let's
2:02
see so what's your role as a
2:04
weather forecaster for space force like
2:06
what
2:07
what's a average day like or even a day
2:09
leading up to a launch sure so we
2:11
actually start providing support for
2:13
launches well in advance even months in
2:15
advance of a launch especially for ula
2:17
launches um for ground operations that
2:20
take place leading up to launch such as
2:21
spacecraft arrival spacecraft transport
2:24
booster mate things like that we provide
2:26
those forecasts and then on launch day
2:28
is our big day where we have more than
2:30
one person supporting with a couple of
2:32
us supporting watching the radar flying
2:34
a weather aircraft and then the main
2:36
elbow on console giving the go no go and
2:38
the weather briefings excellent so um
2:42
let's see and
2:43
you know another question we're
2:45
launching this weather satellite
2:46
do you use the goes series to
2:49
you know develop your forecast is this
2:51
one of the one of the elements that goes
2:53
into it absolutely we absolutely love
2:55
the ghost satellites as i mentioned
2:57
before four years ago we used to get
3:00
images every 30 minutes now we get
3:01
images every five minutes so we use the
3:03
ghost satellites on day of launch
3:05
expense extensively that we use it even
3:07
more than radar because you can see
3:09
clouds developing um where the radar may
3:11
not pick up the clouds so you can get
3:13
way ahead and and predict when showers
3:16
or thunderstorms are going to form even
3:17
before the radar picks it up
3:19
and we also use ghost satellite imagery
3:21
a couple days before our forecast is
3:23
valid because we use it to validate the
3:25
models so if the model
3:27
say has a front moving
3:29
faster and we compare that time of the
3:31
model to the actual real-time imagery
3:33
from goes and the go satellite has it
3:34
further behind and we can you
3:36
incorporate that into our forecast and
3:38
slow the forecast down or things like
3:40
that oh interesting that's great
3:42
well excellent well we'll cross our
3:43
fingers for good weather on tuesday and
3:46
if not that on wednesday but jessica
3:49
thank you so much for joining us and
3:52
we will join you later also with a
3:55
chat with a forecaster from the national
3:58
weather service
3:59
all right
4:01
okay well welcome back on saturday we
4:03
caught up with jessica williams from
4:05
space launch delta 45 who forecast the
4:08
weather first launches like ghost t
4:10
and today monday we're checking in with
4:12
kevin rodriguez a forecaster with noaa's
4:14
national weather service about how he
4:17
uses ghost data and uh what things are
4:20
looking like for tomorrow scheduled for
4:22
launch at
4:24
4 38 pm
4:26
so kevin welcome and and tell us a
4:29
little bit about you know how do you use
4:31
goes series satellite data in your
4:34
regular weather forecasting
4:36
yes good morning or afternoon everyone
4:38
uh like i should mention my name is
4:40
kevin rodriguez i'm a meteorologist here
4:42
at the national weather service office
4:43
in melbourne florida so the go satellite
4:45
has been a spectacular tool for us to
4:48
use in our forecasting
4:50
here at the national weather service and
4:52
this applies to all the forecast offices
4:54
across the country and in puerto rico
4:56
and
4:57
out in hawaii guam across the entire
4:59
conus
5:00
the ghost satellite has been very very a
5:03
very powerful tool for us to enhance our
5:06
forecast one of the really important
5:08
things that we use it for here in
5:09
central florida is for the
5:11
identification of fog and stratus so
5:14
before on the old ghost 15 13 through 15
5:17
series it was very difficult to discern
5:20
which what was low fog or what was fog
5:23
and what was low stratus cloud and that
5:25
can make a big difference for our
5:26
aviation partners um and we're doing
5:28
forecasts for our airports locally here
5:30
and our busiest one is the orlando
5:32
international airport so those low
5:34
clouds and fog can have a big impact and
5:36
now we're able to tell the difference
5:38
the the satellite can actually using
5:40
different algorithms can detect the
5:42
difference between fog and stratus and
5:44
that's been a really big help when we're
5:45
trying to forecast those conditions for
5:47
the airports it's a big help for the
5:48
aviation industry
5:50
another big uh aspect of the satellite
5:53
is its ability to detect fires now here
5:56
in central florida we have a lot of
5:57
population and there's not there's a lot
5:59
of areas that are not sparsely populated
6:01
but as say out in the plains oklahoma
6:04
texas kansas you have these broad areas
6:07
big areas where there's no
6:09
there's not a lot of people
6:10
and grassland fires can start that way
6:12
and they become very hazardous if they
6:14
can get out of control but the
6:15
forecasters can see
6:17
on the satellite it can detect where
6:19
there's hot spots so the satellite picks
6:22
up the heat coming from the fires in
6:24
these very rural areas and then we from
6:26
the national weather service can alert
6:28
fire departments county emergency
6:30
management other officials that can go
6:32
out there and put those fires out before
6:33
they become a hazard to people and if
6:35
they get closer to larger towns and
6:36
cities so that's been a really big help
6:39
and then for us here the big thing is
6:42
the enhanced ability to detect lightning
6:45
so
6:46
with the goes lightning mapper we're
6:48
able to see not just uh cloud flashes uh
6:52
within individual storms but big
6:54
complexes squall lines even in
6:56
hurricanes we're able to detect the
6:58
lightning that occurs within the eye
7:00
wall of the hurricane now with this new
7:02
ghost satellite so those are just some
7:04
of the few applications that we use here
7:06
at the national weather service to
7:07
enhance our mission of protecting lives
7:10
and property
7:11
seems like a good number that's a good
7:14
number of
7:15
examples there so
7:17
you know you're in melbourne florida
7:19
which is not too far from where we are
7:22
now at uh nasa's kennedy space center
7:24
how do you work with
7:27
with kennedy and with the space force to
7:29
kind of prepare
7:30
a launch forecast how do how do the
7:32
different uh groups work together
7:35
yeah so the the the launch weather the
7:38
actual forecast for the weather is done
7:40
by the 45th weather squadron which is
7:42
within the space force there out of
7:44
kennedy and the cape so they're the ones
7:46
in charge of putting out the official
7:47
forecast for that
7:49
our main coordination with them involves
7:51
the use of our doppler radar just to
7:53
make sure that the doppler radar is set
7:55
in the specific mode that they need it
7:57
to be in case there's an anomaly with
7:58
the launch
7:59
and we also coordinate with them and
8:02
with the brevard county emergency
8:03
management which is our home county here
8:06
and just in case there is some kind of
8:07
anomaly we do play launch weather
8:10
messages on the weather radio
8:12
so for mariners there's a very sometimes
8:14
a broad area that they have to stay out
8:16
in in the launch range as the rocket
8:18
goes up
8:19
so we play that message 48 hours
8:21
starting 48 hours before the launch so
8:23
that way folks are aware that okay i
8:25
can't be within this range of the cape
8:28
uh in the few hours leading up to and
8:30
after the launch in case of for the
8:32
booster rockets that they come back in
8:33
some cases um so those are two things
8:36
and then we also coordinate if they have
8:38
um just
8:39
in terms of the entire weather
8:40
enterprise
8:41
coordinating on the forecast so they're
8:43
the ones in charge of the launch
8:45
forecast itself for the rockets and then
8:47
we provide the additional support with
8:49
the radar and weather radio aspects of
8:51
it yeah we don't want any boats in the
8:53
way that's for sure that's correct
8:57
so i know it's kind of been a little
9:00
a little touch and go
9:01
what is the weather looking like for
9:03
tomorrow when it comes to uh to launch
9:06
forecasts
9:08
so we are um at least for the viewing
9:10
public there there will be in the
9:12
morning there's gonna be an area of low
9:14
pressure that's developing east of
9:16
florida tonight and it should be pushing
9:18
away from our area tomorrow but we are
9:20
expecting a lot of clouds in the morning
9:22
so it will be cloudy low stratus but
9:25
that should burn off and dissipate by
9:27
the late morning into the early
9:28
afternoon there'll probably be some
9:30
cumulus clouds around in the afternoon
9:32
but it should be the sun will be out
9:34
um there is a low chance of showers
9:37
across right along the coast and over
9:39
the atlantic waters there's around 20
9:41
chance for that in the morning
9:45
um what about in the afternoon how are
9:47
things how are things looking around oh
9:49
438
9:50
it should be on the drying trend
9:53
can't completely rule out a stray shower
9:55
to around the area but it should be the
9:58
conditions should be improving
10:00
in comparison to the morning
10:02
all right well we'll cross our fingers
10:04
and uh you know do a little weather
10:06
dance or whatever
10:09
yeah
10:09
right
10:10
um
10:12
anything else we should know about how
10:14
how you work with goes and the and this
10:17
ghost series from noah or uh you know
10:20
what are you looking forward to with the
10:23
having ghost tea up
10:25
in geostationary orbit
10:27
yeah so more data please that's always
10:31
a big thing
10:33
uh
10:34
looking back at the past series of ghost
10:35
satellites the the updates came every 15
10:38
minutes and now on now we get satellite
10:41
a new satellite image every five minutes
10:45
and with the advanced uh with the
10:47
mesoscale sectors we can get them every
10:49
one minute so we have now four sectors
10:52
with goes-r and goes-s and then we're
10:53
gonna have six once we get ghost t
10:55
operational
10:57
and that just provides much more
10:59
detailed information
11:00
it does um there's been a lot of
11:02
research over the last five years since
11:04
uh goes-r went up
11:06
in terms of forecasting for severe
11:08
weather we're able to see much more
11:10
detailed cloud features and how clouds
11:12
start to develop and sometimes during
11:15
tornadic or severe thunderstorms there's
11:17
certain little things that we've seen in
11:19
the satellite from a research
11:20
perspective
11:22
that tends to
11:24
that that shows a trend if storms are
11:26
getting stronger and forecasters have
11:28
used that in an operational setting to
11:30
enhance our tornado warnings to provide
11:32
more lead times for the public so it's
11:34
been
11:35
one application
11:36
of it
11:37
and also for tropical and hurricane
11:40
forecasting we can use the the satellite
11:44
uh we put the two ghost mesoscale
11:46
sectors together and you get an update
11:48
every 30 seconds which is incredible so
11:50
you can really see the detailed vortices
11:52
within the eye of a major hurricane for
11:54
example so the ones we've had in recent
11:57
years ida
11:58
laura
12:00
going back to 2017 harvey irma and maria
12:02
there's a lot of very detailed
12:04
information that we're now seeing
12:06
and this really is in in in the future
12:10
we'll see this maybe 5 10 15 years down
12:12
the line enhancements to
12:14
the way we forecast because now the
12:16
computer models can ingest all this very
12:18
detailed information so it is going to
12:20
make the forecast models better and in
12:22
turn it's going to make the forecast
12:23
that we provide to the public and our
12:24
partners that much better there's a lot
12:26
of applications that we're just starting
12:29
to scratch the surface of with ghost
12:30
satellite and i'm excited for all the
12:32
possibilities in the future that sounds
12:34
great and i know i'm you know refreshing
12:36
my uh my weather forecast for the next
12:39
for the next day for sure so thank you
12:42
for all the work you do
12:43
and uh thanks for joining us today kevin
12:46
and we'll keep our fingers crossed for
12:48
the cloud-free skies tomorrow and uh
12:51
thanks to all our viewers for following
12:52
ghosty
12:54
uh virtual social keep uh keep it tuned
12:57
here uh to the event page and we'll have
12:59
more for you coming up soon thanks so
13:02
much
13:02
all right thank you have a good one bye